2014 Senate Races

As you know unless you have been living in a cave for the past six months, there is an election on November 4th. I am going to try my hand in predicting the winners and losers in states that are competitive. The states for discussion are Alaska,Colorado,Georgia, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, New Hampshire,Arkansas, South Dakota, Mississippi, and West Virginia.

The principle I use to make my predictions is based on studies I have done in the past about Senate and Governor races. I have studied over 1500 races over the year and have made the following conclusions. If the incumbent is under 50% in a two person race, with 2 weeks to go or less, he loses 90% of the time.  The reasoning for this is that generally the undecided breaks for the challenger.

 The exception to that is if a candidate has a greater than a 10% lead. As an example, the first race I am going to discuss is Mississippi. Thad Cochran (R) leads Travis Childers (D) 44-31. Cochran came through a bruising primary battle with allegations of voter fraud being raised against him by his primary opponent. Childers will not be able to close the gap.

West Virginia: is another interesting state. Super authoritarian Jay Rockefeller(D) has decided to not seek another term. The GOP candidate Shirley Capito has a huge 53-36 over the Democrat. This state will go R.

Arkansas: the challenger, Tom Cotton has a 46-41 over Mark Pyror the Democrat incumbent. This state will go R.

South Dakota: the Republican Mike Rounds has a comfortable lead 38-28-22 lead over the D and I candidate. The I candidate is former Senator Larry Pressler who once was a Republican, but has since left the party. This state will go R.

Alaska Republican Dan Sullivan holds a 47-43 lead over incumbent Mark Begich. Begich was lucky enough in 2008 to run and be swept in on Obama's coat tails in 2008. This will not happen this time as this state goes R.

Colorado: Cory Gardner has a 46-43 The incumbent, Mark Udall is running a text book bad campaign. He has focused on one issue only, women's rights. This issue is low on the priorities of voters and does not seem to be playing well.  This state goes R.

Georgia: this is an open seat, but with the presence of a Libertarian candidate in the race, a runoff will be forced as state law requires the winner to have 50% of the vote. Purdue tails Nunn 45-44, but is a heavy favorite to get the bulk of the Libertarian vote in a two person race. This state goes R in the January runoff. Georgia requires 50%+1 to win a statewide election.

Iowa : this is an open seat also, but the Republican candidate leads 47-45 and the GOP has had much stronger early voter turnout than in past years. This state goes R.

  Kansas It looks like for the first time since 1932 a Democrat, pretending he is an Independent, will prevail over the incumbent. Roberts has had problems all through out this campaign. Orman is well funded and poised to help the Democrat Party try to keep control of the Senate. They are currently tied 45-45. This state goes D.
. Kentucky this means the GOP will be picking a new Majority or Minority leader. McConnell leads his opponent 46-42, but Grimes, his opponent despite the Democrat Senate Committee pulling funding for her still has over four million dollars to spend. This state goes D.

New Hampshire: Has Jeanne Shaheen turned victory into defeat? She had Scott Brown absolutely buried a few months a ago, but has let him back in the race. She hurt herself badly in the debates when she would not even admit she voted for Obama when he ran for President. She leads Brown 48.4-46.6. This state goes R.

Louisiana : The incumbent Senator (Landrieu) (D) trails the challenger (R) Cassidy 48-43. The only thing Landrieu has going for her is her state also requires a 50%+1 to win a statewide election. The only factor keeping Cassidy from winning on November 4th is another Republican running and getting about 10% of the vote. Come January, Landrieu is out of luck. This state goes R.

Feel free to comment on my picks or maybe make your own ones. Don't get too excited though, even with the GOP in control of both houses, nothing will change. Obamacare is here to stay, and it is a fantasy to think Obama will be impeached.